Apple’s downward adjustment of key upstream semiconductor components for 2024 iPhone shipments to approximately 200 million units, marking a 15% YoY decrease. Apple anticipates one of the most substantial declines among major global mobile phone brands in 2024.
The shipments of the iPhone 15 series and the upcoming 16 series are expected to drop by 10-15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24 respectively. This decline is in comparison to the iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23.
The structural challenges faced by the iPhone in 2024 include the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design, incorporating AI (GenAI) and foldable phones. The Chinese market further contributes to the decline of Huawei’s return and the growing preference for foldable phones among high-end users.
While Samsung benefits from higher-than-expected demand for the Galaxy S24 series, Apple revises the shipment forecast for iPhone 15 in 1H24. Apple’s weekly shipments in China have declined by 30-40% YoY, a trend expected to persist due to Huawei’s return and the increasing popularity of foldable phones among high-end users.
Anticipated changes in iPhone models and a more comprehensive GenAI ecosystem are not expected until 2025 at the earliest. Until then, these structural challenges may hinder Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.
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